Our documentation system will focus on making this an easy, low friction, and collaborative process. The pull request process will eventually compel developers to submit documentation whenever they submit new components and refactoring. Documentation will be done in markdown as this has the benefit of being easily readable in both plain text as well as transformed into a richer experience. It also is quick to learn and to write. Currently, we leverage mkdocs as our publishing engine but since all content is in markdown it could be transitioned to another engine without significant reinvestment.
This content is documented in static markdown files within the Project Mu repository. We leverage mkdocs to generate web-hosted content on every change and host these using github. These static files focus on how the project and community interact. But thats cos they throw a lot of these around. Most treasury trades are not to take risk but to de-risk and finance. I think Im explaining this badly and should probably shut up. The one substantive point i made that i would like to emphasize is that i have seen no weird or outsized moves in either basis swaps markets or the forward points in any major fx swaps to my knowledge.
Its possible that this demand couldnt be expressed for some other reasons but it seems troublesome. Its not the funding of the spec positions for global macro or even real money fx positions which will matter. All small potatoes. Its the funding of all the fx on bank balance sheets. Fx swaps finances most of it. Spec fx positions will be a relatively small element.
Any instrument can be used for speculation. But at the same time, you use the most appropriate instrument. FX swap is not really a derivative. I could happily trade millions of FX exposure with a few k assets in my account. Thank you for the great round up. Risk regimes tend to be backward looking, and everyone is using a lens when analyzing repo turmoil. The day-to-day supply and demand drivers of the repo market, be they coupon settlements or corporate tax days, were neither unexpected nor the likely suspects for such violent price swings.
This left a huge intraday liquidity hole in one banks profile. Typically a bank pays a daylight overdraft fee to borrow intraday from its clearing bank. To some extent the market worked. HQLA rp is an easy and fast way to raise intraday liquidity. In someways the market failed.
The violence of the move, and the subsequent fallout, suggests that dealer balance sheets and system leverage are so high that excess capacity is hard to deploy rapidly. I do agree that there is a huge off balance sheet fx swap market.
The users of swap dollar funding will also use repo; and a lot of that swap usd is ultimately raised via repo. The explosion in fx swap financing is driven by Central bank policy decisions mistakes? With local interest rates negative, Japanese lifers and European concerns need dollars to buy dollar assets in their search for yield.
Maybe in our search for the next crisis event, we are like the frog in a pot of water set to boil.
Negative rates and the hyper financialization they drive are the crisis. The repo event is just one bubble in our boiling pot. Perfect last paragraph. So why are rates so low? Bc of inequality. If the rich have all the money and are concerned with staying rich, I. The game monopoly shows what happens late in the game as all the money accumulates to fewer players… the losers have no money and are driven out to the sidelines, with nothing to do but watch the rich, still active players.
Like our homeless. Europe is more serious about austerity, only their remaining stabilizers keep homelessness at bay… but not in Greece, Italy on deck. Europe is on the gold standard, pelosi wants us to do the same, witness pay go. Of course not for mil or deep. The more we allow monopolists what Buffett speaks approvingly as having a moat to acquire all wealth the lower yields will go. Just like allowing private banks to use our sovereign power to create credit and guarantee deposits no matter how stupid their lending… Only massive fiscal deficit spending will get money into the hands of spenders.
Only ending monopolies and taxing the rich will reduce inequality. Rates are low to reinforce global inequality. The USD repo market is the fundamental brick in the ZIRP leverage pyramid that drives down the value of labor and savings, and buys out an exploits the global commons. I think this article does a good job of explaining the geopolitical effects of ZIRP.
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We already run massive deficits. But redirecting that spending would make for a better world. I do believe that funding spikes and blown out year-end cross currency basis swaps are indicators of massive leverage in the system. We may get there faster via some catastrophe, or via the persistent weathering of our obsolete institutions. But I do think this end would be a well deserved catastrophe for that American way of life built on extraction and rent. I am quite sure my comment is a vast over simplification but it is probably worth getting shredded over regardless. Could it be that the Fed has created a monster it no longer controls via the systemic money market banks?
I think there are a lot of dots connected in this theory that should not be, but if you discount the ominous motivations of foreign actors, the author does lay out a plausible scenario in which the Fed is no longer in the drivers seat. Another potential reason for repo madness comes from Wolfstreet, and this could be just as much of a reason. Their concern is to make sure the richest of the rich never have a nanogram of financial pain, lest that pain be leveraged into a ten ton boulder that crushes the peasants.
I have seen no data that indicates that this company had any kind of trouble in the repo market. It may have sailed through the repo turmoil without any issues.
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It also buys Collateralized Mortgage Obligations. These are long-term assets. And it funds those purchases mostly in the repo market.objectifcoaching.com/components/henderson/rencontre-ardeche-sans-inscription.php
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It makes money off the difference between the higher yields on mortgage-backed securities and the low cost of borrowing in the repo market. This works more or less — until the repo market blows out. And if the repo market counterparties are unwilling to play this game, then any company in this boat would suddenly no longer be able to fund its operations and its leveraged bets, and all heck could break loose.
A company borrowing in the repo market to fund long-term investments could blow up in no time. So how does the company fund these investments? In other words, nearly all of the cash to fund its investments comes from the repo market.
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Maturities are typically one year or less but can be longer. For the period ended June 30, the company paid an weighted average interest rate of 2. Over the same period, the average 3-month Treasury yield was around 2. So this company was borrowing at a cost of only 30 basis points above the borrowing costs of the US government. This is where the company borrows actual Treasury securities to cover its short sales of Treasury securities.
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These reverse repos on its books have maturities of 30 days or less. The company also uses derivative instruments to hedge against interest rate risks and other factors. So this is just one example of the many players in the repo market. This gigantic operation has zero employees. Sucking on the government tit for billions floats a lot of mega yachts, but hey this is modern capitalism, and these criminals will tell you they work hard for every penny they earn.
This is why I have been loath to write about this topic. There is a ton more noise than signal and too many people are getting distracted by noise. I hate to tell you but that analysis by Wolf, while it took a lot of work, does not give any new insight as to what is going on.
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This is one pretty small by market standards participant, and Wolf has no idea how representative it is. The Fed charts shows demand for repo rising….. Demand from non-banks exceeds supply. The person in the FT attributed demand to hedge funds.